As the Kogi electorate go to the poll today to elect the governor that will pilot the affairs of the state in the next four years, JAMES AZANIA examines the likely scenario that may play out for the two leading parties—All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)—and their candidates, Prince Abubakar Audu and Governor Idris Wada respectively.
Since the advent of the current democratic dispensation in 1999, the 2015 governorship election in Kogi promises to be the most keenly contested in the state. There are several reasons for this.
For one, the outcome of the last general election, which for the first time saw an opposition candidate, President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC unseat the sitting president and candidate of the PDP, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan in an election that was widely regarded as free and fair.
Whether the same scenario will play out in today’s governorship election in Kogi State is something that millions of Nigerians await with bated breath. Like the centre where the PDP had
been in power for 16 years, the party has also been at the helm of affairs in Kogi State in the last 13 years. While political analysts maintain that the PDP perpetuated itself in power for that long on account of rigging, the introduction of card readers by Prof. Attahiru Jega-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is believed to have changed the equation. The development has been largely credited for making the votes count.
The history of governorship elections in Kogi State, which interestingly has seen Prince Abubakar Audu feature in all of them since 1999, is testimony of his staying power and political astuteness. Contesting the election under the now defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), one of the parties whose structures were collapsed into APC, Audu had lost the 2011 governorship contest to the incumbent governor, Capt. Idris Wada of the PDP. His party however rejected the outcome of the poll as announced by the returning officer for the state, Prof. Shamsudeen Amali, who on December 3, 2011 declared Wada winner with 300,372 votes against Audu’s 159,913. The total number of eligible voters in the state stood at 1.3 million while 518,949 people voted.
In the 2011 contest, Audu won in three of the 21 local government areas of the state, namely Ofu, Olamaboro (Kogi East) and Adavi (Kogi Central), while Wada won in all the others. Observers of political events in the state are however of the opinion that a lot has changed between 2011 and now.
The APC tsunami saw an opposition party sweep the poll during the last National Assembly elections, winning all three senatorial seats and six out of the nine House of Representatives seats. The party also went on to win 11 out of the 25 house of assembly seats in the state house of assembly contest.
Political analysts believe that some of the factors that will work to alter the sequence of political contests in the state will include the anticipated near absence of rigging, the strength of Audu’s running mate, Hon. James Abiodun Faleke, from the Okun-speaking Kogi West Senatorial District.
While the Wada-led PDP administration has been fending off allegations of alleged non-performance, the avalanche of defection from the party could be an ominous sign for the incumbent governor.
Both Audu and Wada hail from the Igala-speaking Kogi East Senatorial District. Hence a tight race is expected for the two candidates in that part of the state. But Audu has always made an in-road in the predominantly Ebira-speaking Kogi
Central Senatorial District, where the presence of two strong candidates from the area in the persons of Dr. Phillip Salau of the Labour Party (LP) and Enesi Ozigi of the Progressive People Alliance (PPA), could make the penetration of outsiders difficult.
The Ebira are reputed for voting for their own, whatever the odds, which is why the purported recalcitrance of Alhaji Yahaya Bello a.k.a. Fairplus, who contested the APC governorship primary alongside 22 others before losing to Audu, is seen by analysts as not too good a sign for Audu because the people would naturally attribute their son’s loss of the APC ticket to him. The absence of Fairplus at subsequent APC outings would compound the fears in Audu’s camp as far as Kogi Central is concerned.
Game changer
Watchers of political events in Kogi however see Faleke’s emergence as Audu’s running make as the antidote to Fairplus’ lukewarm attitude to the fortunes of the party he had done so much for, particularly in the build-up to the presidential election. Hailing from Ekirin-Edde in Ijumu Local Government Area, Faleke is touted as a plus for the APC ticket. Aside from his wide acceptance in the predominantly Okun-speaking Kogi West, where the APC has for once been able to secure the people’s acceptance, he is also conversant with the people of Kogi Central where he attended Abdulazeez Attah Memorial College, Okene (AMCO).
Audu was said to have had a problem with the people of Kogi West during his tenures as governor, with some accusing him of not developing the area and retrenching many workers from the area for political reasons. In the past, the PDP had always won in Kogi West. But the coming of Faleke who is perceived largely as innocent might have extenuated the people’s grievances against Audu. Besides, the massive defection of PDP chieftains and their supporters in the area to APC is seen as evidence of the asset that Faleke could be to the APC in Kogi West where he hails from
Source:THE NATION
Source:THE NATION
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